The company can make 10 million doses available next year, with $600 million to $1 billion in revenue potential into 2025, “albeit perhaps lower on price, discounts and donations,” according to Jefferies analyst Peter Welford.
With the World Health Organization this week declaring the mpox outbreak a global health emergency, Bavarian Nordic now faces a promising windfall opportunity for its smallpox vaccine Jynneos.
On Thursday, the European Commission, through its Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), placed an order for 175,420 doses of Jynneos, which the body will then donate to Africa’s Centers for Disease Control (CDC). HERA is also pumping around $3.8 million—earmarked for early autumn—into the Africa CDC to boost mpox diagnostics and sequencing in the region.
To supplement efforts to curb the outbreak, Bavarian Nordic will also donate 40,000 doses of Jynneos to HERA, according to the European Commission. Africa CDC will distribute the shots to regions in need.
Bavarian Nordic on Friday announced it has submitted clinical data to the European Medicines Agency to extend the use of its mpox vaccine for teenagers.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Wednesday announced that mpox outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo—which has increasingly spread to other countries in Africa—now qualifies as a public health emergency of international concern. This designation indicates that mpox could spread to other countries in Africa and potentially beyond the continent.
Adhanom Ghebreyesus called the current situation in Africa “very worrying” and called for “a coordinated international response” to “stop these outbreaks and save lives.”
Mpox, a zoonotic virus known to be a less severe version of smallpox, is typically characterized by early fevers, body pain and headaches. Unchecked, the infection can lead to rashes and skin eruptions. Mpox is transmitted through physical contact.
There are two known clades of mpox. In 2022, the milder clade II caused an outbreak in the U.S., forcing several states to declare local health emergencies. However, the current outbreak is caused by clade Ib, which according to WHO is a new virus strain that appears to be deadlier. Earlier this week, Africa CDC put out a call for support to mobilize two million mpox vaccines.
Jynneos is an attenuated live vaccine that primes the immune system to attack orthopoxviruses. It won the FDA’s approval in September 2019 for both mpox and smallpox. Currently, only two countries in Africa have cleared the use of Jynneos under emergency use pathways, but WHO has already requested that Bavarian Nordic file an expression of interest for the emergency use of its vaccine, which could accelerate its roll-out in more African countries.
Jefferies analyst Peter Welford in a note to investors said the mpox emergency could be a “windfall” for Bavarian Nordic, which has said that it could produce around three million Jynneos doses this year, given that there are firm orders in place. The company can also make 10 million more doses available next year.
“We estimate that 10 million doses perhaps suggest up to $600 million to $1 billion revenue potential into 2025, albeit perhaps lower on price, discounts and donations,” Welford wrote.
