The updated guidance, which was largely driven by lower-than-anticipated sales of GLP-1 blockbusters Mounjaro and Zepbound, sent Eli Lilly’s shares cratering by as much as 8% Tuesday, even as the company forecasted robust 2025 revenue.
Eli Lilly shaved off some stock Tuesday after reporting that it expected fourth quarter and 2024 revenue to miss analyst estimates—largely due to lower-than-expected sales of its GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, which brought in $3.5 billion and $1.9 billion, respectively.
Lilly did not miss by much, however. The company brought in about $13.5 billion, in contrast to the $13.9 billion expected by analysts polled by FactSet, according to STAT News.
The Indiana-based company’s stock fell by as much as 8% in Tuesday morning trading, setting Lilly on track for its worst day since 2021, Reuters reported.
Speaking with Reuters, Lilly CFO Lucas Montarce chalked the gap up to wholesalers not stockpiling Mounjaro and Zepbound at the same rates they have in years past. Lilly also reported sales shortfalls for the third quarter of 2024, when it similarly pointed the finger at wholesalers not buying at rates they previously had.
Nevertheless, Truist analysts noted that those ordering shortfalls could be the result of manufacturing shortages for tirzepatide-based drugs that have only recently resolved.
Meanwhile, CEO David Ricks indicated in a statement that the growth of the incretin market had been slower than the company’s expectations.
“While the U.S. incretin market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous guidance had anticipated even faster acceleration of growth for the quarter,” Lilly CEO David Ricks, said in a statement Tuesday.
Overall, the picture is much brighter for Lilly, as the company said it expects $45 billion in full-year 2024 revenue, representing a 32% year-over-year growth rate. Meanwhile, Lilly’s 2025 sales forecast of between $58 billion and $61 billion is right on target or even slightly above analysts’ estimates of about $58.52 billion, according to Reuters.
To support this projection, Lilly could be banking on increased availability of its drugs, as Ricks said the company “expect[s] to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of the year compared to the first half of 2024.”
Lilly is also anticipating strong sales from other portfolio drugs, including lymphoma and leukemia treatment Jaypirca, dermatitis medicine Ebglyss, ulcerative colitis therapy Omvoh and recently approved Alzheimer’s treatment Kisunla.
The updated guidance comes as more and more companies, including Pfizer, Amgen and Sandoz are ramping up their efforts and reporting new data in an obesity space propelled by the arrival of GLP-1 agonists.
