While Moderna’s Spikevax beat Wall Street estimates in the third quarter, William Blair analyst Myles Minter in a Thursday note to investors said sales of the company’s respiratory syncytial virus vaccine mRESVIA was significantly lower than expected.
Despite disappointing sales of its respiratory syncytial virus shot, Moderna on Thursday beat consensus revenue estimates in the third quarter, driven primarily by better-than-expected COVID-19 vaccine sales.
The company reported $1.9 billion in the quarter, a 3.5% uptick from the same period in 2023 and coming ahead of the $1.25 billion consensus estimate, according to Zacks Investment Research. Moderna reported diluted earnings-per-share of $0.03 in Q3 versus analysts’ expectations of a $1.91-per-share loss.
Moderna’s Q3 beat was driven by a surprise surge in sales of its COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax, which brought in $1.8 billion in the quarter, representing 3.5% year-on-year growth. Spikevax also comfortably exceeded the consensus forecast, which put its Q3 sales at $1.38 billion. Sales of the vaccine were particularly high in the U.S., where it generated $1.2 billion.
However, William Blair analyst Myles Minter said he was “reluctant to call this a beat, given full year 2024 revenue guidance was not raised, and point to sales being pulled forward into August/September.”
Moderna maintained its 2024 revenue guidance of $3 billion to $3.5 billion in revenue largely in the second half of the year, with $2.2 billion in product sales year-to-date primarily attributable to Spikevax sales and mRESVIA.
Still, Moderna in Q3 continued to make progress with its savings initiative. The company’s total operating expenses in the quarter totaled $1.93 billion, which was nearly half its overall spend during the same period last year. Cost of sales declined sharply from $2.24 billion in the third quarter of 2023 to $514 million in the most recent quarter.
In September 2024, Moderna announced plans to lower its R&D spending by around $1.1 billion annually by 2027—a roadmap that was met with skepticism from analysts, as the company also announced that it plans to win 10 regulatory approvals during the same timeframe.
On the negative side of the Q3 ledger, Moderna reported $10 million in sales from its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine mRESVIA. Minter in his Thursday note to investors said the number “fell below our and Street’s expectation of $64 million.”
The company said the lower-than-expected mRESVIA sales were a direct result of the later-than-anticipated approval for the vaccine. The shot was greenlit by the FDA at the end of May 2024 and hit the market “when many customers had completed their orders,” according to Moderna.
Another headwind for mRESVIA was the recent guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which only recommended RSV vaccination for seniors aged 75 and older, and in those 60 to 74 years of age who are at risk of severe disease. Moderna’s vaccine is approved for use in seniors 60 years and older, but the company is currently running a Phase III study of the shot in high-risk adults 18 to 59 years old.
Moderna plans to file a regulatory submission for mRESVIA in this patient group by the end of 2024, for which it will use a priority review voucher.
Beyond its commercial vaccines, Moderna is also working on a combination vaccine for flu and COVID-19, which is currently in Phase III, and a Phase I/II propionic acidemia program. The company is partnered with Merck to study its individualized neoantigen therapy in combination with the blockbuster therapy Keytruda for certain types of non-small cell lung cancer. This investigational regimen is currently in Phase III.
On Thursday, Moderna announced that CEO Stéphane Bancel will no longer serve as the company’s Chief Commercial Officer and will instead relinquish those duties to President Stephen Hoge, who also heads R&D activities.
