While GLP-1 drugs remain wildly popular and are a highly lucrative sector, data analytics firm GlobalData contends manufacturing and cost will remain overhangs on the obesity market.
Despite continuing to generate blockbuster sales numbers for companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, data analytics and consulting company GlobalData predicts the GLP-1 drug class will still face some headwinds in the obesity market.
In a Thursday briefing, GlobalData revealed that GLP-1 receptor agonist sales pulled in $25 billion last year in seven major markets–the U.S., France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the U.K.—and predicted they will reach a total of $111 billion by 2033. GlobalData’s latest estimates appeared to be a slight downward change from a May 2024 report that pegged sales reaching $125 billion in the combined type 2 diabetes and obesity markets.
Other analysts have placed the market’s value much higher. Last month, Reuters reported that BMO Capital Markets estimated the obesity market to reach $150 billion by the early 2030s. Still higher, Leerink projects the weight-loss drug space will be worth around $158 billion by 2032.
Costanza Alciati, a cardiovascular and metabolic disorders analyst at GlobalData, said during Thursday’s briefing that the emergence of GLP-1 biosimilars would impact branded drug sales and expand access to these medications for a larger patient population. She also anticipates that off-label use of GLP-1s will decline as awareness of the drug increases and more therapeutic options become more readily available.
Despite the advances and the approval of new medicines in the obesity space, Alciati said there are unmet needs remaining in the market including the high cost of weight-loss drugs for patients in many countries, where the medications are not covered by insurance. She also contends that the efficacy and tolerability of this class of drugs could be improved.
“These unmet needs in the fast-growing patient population represent a significant opportunity for new entrants in the obesity treatment market,” Alciati said.
To help address these needs, companies are developing different mechanisms of action for obesity treatments to meet future demand. Alciati pointed to Regeneron’s myostatin inhibitor, which is combined with a GLP-1 receptor agonist to target the prevention of muscle wasting, and Tonix Pharmaceuticals’ intranasal oxytocin aimed at treating pediatric obesity.
“In the next decade, the obesity population will continue to grow worldwide offering a significant opportunity for new entrants to try and meet patients’ demand,” Alciati said.
Manufacturing challenges will also continue to plague drugmakers due to high demand for these medications. According to GlobalData, the top GLP-1 drugs are still in shortage in the U.S., Europe and Australia as demand has increased from a large worldwide patient population.
“Right now, shortages are continuing. Patients are still struggling to access GLP-1 receptor agonists for obesity,” Fiona Barry, director of GlobalData’s PharmSource, said during Thursday’s briefing. “We forecast that that demand is going to grow further... And this is happening against geopolitical and post-COVID supply chain challenges generally within the pharma industry.”
However, Barry sees some hope in alleviating the problem in the manufacturing sector, as drugmakers are pouring money into boosting their capacity to make GLP-1s. This includes the $5.3 billion additional investment from Lilly in producing Mounjaro and Zepbound’s active ingredient and Novo’s $16.5 billion acquisition of three of Catalent’s production sites in the U.S. and Europe. Still, Barry noted that supply issues will remain a concern until additional manufacturing infrastructure comes online.
Tyler Patchen is a staff writer at BioSpace. You can reach him at tyler.patchen@biospace.com. Follow him on LinkedIn.
