Driven by growing market demand and an improving supply chain, the global weight-loss drug market is expected to hit $150 billion in value by the early 2030s, according to analysts cited by Reuters.
Analysts have raised their forecasts for the global weight-loss and obesity drug market, which they now expect to reach $150 billion by the early 2030s, according to an analysis by Reuters published Tuesday.
BMO Capital Markets estimates that the market will reach $150 billion by 2033, while Leerink is more optimistic in its projection anticipating that the obesity and weight-loss drug space will be worth $158 billion by 2032, according to Reuters.
The forecasts are significantly higher than what the analyst community had been predicting. In November 2023, Goldman Sachs analysts said the market would reach $100 billion by 2030. Earlier this month, GlobalData predicted that the GLP-1 receptor agonist market would be worth $125 billion by 2033.
The rapid growth of the weight-loss drug space is driven at least in part by insatiable consumer demand and “unmet medical need,” David Song, portfolio manager at Tema Obesity & Cardiometabolic ETF, told Reuters. “100 million-plus Americans are obese, and even more are overweight. Worldwide, there are estimates out there of close to a billion who are obese,” Song added.
While supply issues have stymied the market’s potential, these challenges are increasingly being addressed by pharma companies. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the two most dominant players, have been investing heavily in their manufacturing capacities in recent months.
Novo pumped $6 billion into its Denmark operations, mainly to bolster its supply chain and help meet the global demand for its top-selling GLP-1 product semaglutide, which is sold as Wegovy for weight loss and as Ozempic for type 2 diabetes. The Danish pharma in February 2024 also acquired CDMO giant Catalent for $16.5 billion in an effort to increase its production capabilities.
Last week, Lilly announced a $5.3 billion investment in its Indiana plant to support the manufacturing of its GLP-1 analog tirzepatide, which it is marketing as Zepbound for obesity and Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes. This latest tranche brings Lilly’s total commitment to its Indiana facility to $9 billion. The pharma also previously announced that it was dropping $2.5 billion to construct a manufacturing plant in Germany, which will focus on its obesity and diabetes products.
Several other drugmakers are also looking to break into the lucrative weight loss and obesity space, which is driving the market’s value even higher.
Boehringer Ingelheim is advancing survodutide, a dual agonist of the GLP-1 and glucagon receptors. In May 2023, the pharma launched five late-stage trials to evaluate survodutide as a weight-loss treatment. Phase II data for the candidate, released in June 2023, showed that it could reduce body weight by approximately 20%.
Amgen is also eyeing a place in the obesity race with its bi-specific candidate MariTide, which in a Phase I study elicited a 14.5% weight-loss after 85 days. MariTide is designed to target both the GLP-1 and GIP receptors.
However, weight-loss drug pricing continues to be a contentious issue that has attracted the attention of Congress. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), chair of the Senate health committee, has set his sights on the drug class launching in April 2024 a probe into what he called the “outrageously high prices” of Wegovy and Ozempic. Earlier this month, Sanders cautioned that the prices of these treatments could bring prescription spending to $1 trillion a year and, in turn, bankrupt the U.S. healthcare system.
Novo on Tuesday responded to Sanders’ criticism, noting that the focus on the pharma’s pricing is misplaced. Instead, the Danish drugmaker pointed out that a big chunk of the cost is due to the involvement of middlemen, according to a Bloomberg.
Tristan Manalac is an independent science writer based in Metro Manila, Philippines. Reach out to him on LinkedIn or email him at tristan@tristanmanalac.com or tristan.manalac@biospace.com.
