Weight loss
In the race to make the most tolerable obesity drug, there seems to be no clear winner—at least not according to analysts parsing the data presented at the American Diabetes Association annual meeting this week.
Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide is expected to be worth $62 billion annually by 2030, according to Evaluate. That valuation would be three times larger than what AbbVie’s blockbuster Humira ever achieved.
Eli Lilly’s bimagrumab led to weight loss that was due almost entirely to fat reduction when combined with semaglutide, marketed by rival Novo Nordisk as Wegovy. BMO Capital Markets called the data “impressive” while raising concerns about the antibody’s safety profile.
While Eli Lilly brushed off concerns about gastrointestinal side effects for oral weight loss candidate orforglipron, analysts from William Blair worried that adverse events are not tapering off as expected.
After consistently failing to meet investor expectations, Novo Nordisk touted a safety profile for CagriSema in line with the GLP1-RA class, while reporting mid-stage data for its GLP1- and amylin-targeting drug amycretin that raised dosing questions.
Analysts at William Blair say dapiglutide’s 11.6% weight reduction at 28 weeks could still be better, given that Zealand’s study predominantly included men and enrolled patients with lower BMI at baseline.
In combination with Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, marketed as Zepbound for obesity, Scholar Rock’s monolonal antibody helped patients lose the same amount of weight as patients on tirzepatide alone while preserving more muscle mass.
At 12 weeks, weight loss ranged from 2.6% to 11.3%, compared to a gain of 0.2% in the placebo group. Guggenheim analysts were also impressed by the tolerability profile.
For $812 million, Novo Nordisk will enlist Deep Apple to discover and develop a non-incretin therapy for obesity, months after the Danish pharma’s amylin efforts underwhelmed investors.
The deal is Lilly’s second obesity tie-up in a week, after sinking up to $870 million into an agreement with Camurus to develop long-acting versions of molecules against GLP-1 and other incretins.
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